Recent polling data from the 2024 Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast indicates that Vice President Kamala Harris is currently leading former President Donald Trump in three key swing states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
Following President Joe Biden’s decision to exit the 2024 race on July 21, amid internal Democratic debates over leadership, he endorsed Harris. This endorsement positioned her as the likely Democratic nominee.
Before Biden’s exit, Harris trailed Trump in several polls, but she consistently outperformed other prominent Democratic contenders. Post-endorsement, her campaign gained significant momentum, highlighted by a impressive $310 million fundraising haul in July and a burgeoning TikTok presence with 2.9 million followers.
This surge appears to resonate with voters, as her national polling average has risen by 4.4 points in the last month, placing her ahead of Trump at 45% to 43.9% overall, according to the Silver Bulletin model.
In swing states, Harris holds a slim lead: in Pennsylvania, she’s ahead by a hair (45.3% to 44.8%); in Wisconsin, by 1.2 points (46% to 44.8%); and in Michigan, by 2.4 points (45.2% to 42.8%). However, Trump maintains leads in battleground states like Georgia (46.3% to 44.8%), North Carolina (46.7% to 44.7%), Arizona (46.3% to 43.8%), and Nevada (43.9% to 42.6%).
Even with Harris’s recent gains, the race remains tight, indicating a potentially close election ahead.
Scott Olson/Getty Images/Elijah Nouvelage/AFP via Getty Images
The Silver Bulletin is associated with polling expert Nate Silver, known for founding the influential site FiveThirtyEight. Currently, Eli McKown-Dawson, a graduate student at The London School of Economics specializing in social statistics and survey methods, collaborates with Silver as an assistant elections analyst.
Silver’s presidential model adeptly adjusts polling averages based on factors such as voter demographics and the presence of independent candidates, ensuring that the most reliable data is prioritized in the forecasts.