According to a recent poll from Napolitan News Service, Vice President Kamala Harris has edged ahead of former President Donald Trump, leading by 3 percentage points. The online survey, conducted by Scott Rasmussen from October 7 to 10, included nearly 3,000 likely voters across the country. It revealed that 50% of participants support Harris, while 47% favor Trump.
In contrast to a previous poll where Harris and Trump were tied at 49%, this latest data shows a slight shift in voter sentiment. The demographic breakdown indicates that among Harris’s supporters, 45% are male and 55% female, whereas Trump’s support consists of 53% male and 42% female.
Harris is performing well among younger generations, leading in all age brackets up to 64, but Trump takes the lead with 51% support among voters aged 65 and older. Notably, Harris has seen an increase in support among voters aged 45-54 and 55-64 since the last poll.
When it comes to racial demographics, Harris garners strong backing from Black voters (85% to 14% for Trump) and Hispanic voters (66% to 33%). However, Trump maintains a lead among white voters, with 55% support compared to Harris’s 42%. Without the “leaners,” Harris’s lead narrows to 2 percentage points, with a margin of error of +/- 1.8 percentage points.
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Polls throughout this election cycle suggest a tight race between the leading candidates, often fluctuating within the margin of error. While nationwide polling provides insight into general voter sentiment, the ultimate outcome will hinge on state-by-state dynamics and the Electoral College. A candidate needs to secure 270 electoral votes, which doesn’t always correspond with the popular vote, as seen in previous elections.
The battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Georgia are expected to be highly competitive this election, showing a near tie between Harris and Trump, often fluctuating by just 1 percent. Most aggregate polls indicate Harris leads nationally; however, when looking at these crucial battlegrounds, the race remains incredibly close, making every vote significant.