In a surprising turn, Vice President Kamala Harris has taken a slight lead over former President Donald Trump, according to the latest daily presidential poll from Rasmussen Reports. This marks the first time Harris has led in this poll since it began tracking on October 15.
With the election looming in just 11 days, the race remains notably close, especially in critical battleground states. The recent national survey, which sampled 2,745 likely voters from October 21 to 24, shows Harris ahead by a narrow margin of one percentage point (48% to 47%). However, this is within the poll’s margin of error of ±2%, indicating a tightly contested race. Additionally, 2% of voters prefer another candidate, and 3% remain undecided.
The Rasmussen poll also highlights an interesting dynamic: both candidates hold similar support among genders, with Harris leading by 2 points among women and Trump by 1 point among men.
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Previously, Trump had a 2-point lead in Rasmussen’s last poll, indicating a shift in momentum for Harris, though earlier this year, ABC News’ FiveThirtyEight removed Rasmussen from its averages due to concerns over its methodology.
Moreover, a New York Times/Siena College poll also showed Trump and Harris in a deadlock at 48% among registered voters, pointing to a tightening race. This latest finding raises concerns for Harris, especially since Democrats have historically won the national popular vote since 2008, despite Trump’s victory in the Electoral College in 2016.
While national polls reflect general voter sentiment, the outcome will ultimately depend on individual states and their electoral influence. To clinch the presidency, a candidate needs to secure at least 270 electoral votes, which may not always mirror the national popular vote.