Polling expert Nate Silver has published insights on the upcoming 2024 presidential election, suggesting that Vice President Kamala Harris is poised to win all seven pivotal swing states this November. Though no longer connected to FiveThirtyEight, the polling aggregator he founded, Silver shared his analysis on his Substack blog.
In his model, the path to presidential victory lies through the Electoral College, requiring at least 270 electoral votes. The key to this is securing wins in swing states, which include Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada.
In Sunday’s simulations, Harris triumphed in all seven swing states 15,273 times out of 70,000 runs. Trump followed closely behind, winning all seven states 13,912 times. Silver estimates there is around a 40 percent chance that either candidate could sweep these critical states.
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Current Standings in Key States
As it stands, Harris has a lead in four swing states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin. In Michigan, Harris polls at 48.7% against Trump’s 46.8%. In Nevada, she has 48.9% to Trump’s 47.1%. The numbers are similar in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where Harris holds 48.8% and 49.4% respectively.
Conversely, Trump shows strength in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. He garners 48.6% support in Arizona and Georgia and 48.1% in North Carolina, keeping him ahead of Harris in those states.
Interestingly, recent averages from FiveThirtyEight mirror these standings, although in North Carolina, Harris has taken a slight lead of 0.1 points over Trump.
Nationally, Who’s Ahead?
When we look at the national landscape, Silver’s model indicates Harris has a 3.3-point lead over Trump, polling at 49.3% to Trump’s 46%. FiveThirtyEight’s national polling also reflects Harris ahead by 2.8 points (48.5% to 45.7%). While popular vote trends don’t guarantee an election win, they offer insights into voter sentiment towards each candidate.