Nate Silver’s latest polling data indicates that Vice President Kamala Harris’ lead over former President Donald Trump has narrowed this week.
Silver, a renowned polling expert and creator of the presidential model for November’s election, currently shows Harris, the Democratic nominee, slightly ahead of Trump, the GOP nominee, by 2.5 points (48.7% to 46.2%). It’s worth noting that Trump has gained 1.1 points since last week.
Polling data is crucial for understanding potential election outcomes, but remember, the popular vote alone doesn’t guarantee victory due to the Electoral College. A candidate must secure at least 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
Silver warns that Harris is in “dangerous territory” regarding the Electoral College based on his latest update.
His model accounts for various factors, including the types of voters surveyed and systematic biases of polling firms. More reliable polls are also given more weight in his averages, which are derived with assistance from Eli McKown-Dawson, a post-graduate student at The London School of Economics.
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How Are the Nominees Faring in Swing States?
Swing states play a vital role in determining the Electoral College outcome in November.
Currently, Harris leads Trump by a slim margin of 0.3 points in Pennsylvania (48.2% to 47.9%), though Trump has made a gain of 0.9 points since last week. In Michigan, Harris is ahead by 1.4 points (48.2% to 46.8%), even with Trump’s 0.4-point bump this week. Georgia remains exceedingly close, with Harris slightly ahead by just 0.1 points (48.1% to 48%), following a 1-point gain for Trump.
In Wisconsin, Harris has a stronger lead at 2.2 points (49.3% to 47.1%), but Trump has made strides with a 1.1 points increase since last week. Meanwhile, in Nevada, Harris is ahead by 0.5 points (48.5% to 48%), although Trump has gained 0.3 points there as well.
On the flip side, Trump leads Harris in North Carolina by 1.1 points (49% to 47.9%) after a 0.8-point increase this week, and by 2.1 points in Arizona (49.3% to 47.2%) with a notable 1.5-point gain since last week.
As national and state polls show both candidates neck-and-neck, it’s shaping up to be an intense competition.