The Arizona U.S. Senate race is heating up as Republican Kari Lake is closing the gap with Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego, according to the latest polling data.
Lake, backed by former President Donald Trump, is set to face Gallego in the election scheduled for November 5. Until recently, Gallego maintained a steady lead, but recent polls indicate that Lake is gaining ground — now trailing by less than a percentage point.
A poll from the Trafalgar Group, conducted on September 11-12, showed Gallego ahead by 4.2 points (47.2% to 43%). About 4.4% of respondents supported other candidates, while 5.4% were undecided.
The latest poll from Trafalgar, taken between October 10-13, reveals Gallego leading by 3.7 points (47.6% to 43.9%). The number of undecided voters has slightly increased to 5.6%, with only 2.8% favoring other candidates.
The sample size for both polls was around 1,090 likely Arizona voters, with a margin of error of 2.9%.
Overall, FiveThirtyEight’s polling average currently places Gallego ahead by 7.4 points, at 49.8%, while Lake sits at 42.4%.
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A win for Gallego is vital for Democrats aiming to maintain their slim Senate majority. Currently, the Senate is composed of 48 Democrats, three independents, and 49 Republicans. Republicans are targeting this seat in conjunction with races in Montana, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, particularly as West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin’s seat is likely to turn Republican following his decision not to seek reelection.
Gallego, a five-term congressman and Iraq War veteran, is running against Lake, who previously lost the gubernatorial election in 2022 and has made unverified claims regarding electoral fraud in both her race and the 2020 presidential election.
Both candidates are contesting for the seat being vacated by Senator Kyrsten Sinema, who is not running for reelection after her shift to independent status.