In the race for the Arizona Senate seat, Republican Kari Lake finds herself lagging behind Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego, according to the most recent polling data.
The contest is set to fill the vacancy left by Kyrsten Sinema, who shifted from being a Democrat to an independent. This election is seen as pivotal for the balance of power in the Senate for the upcoming 2025 term. For the Democrats, it’s critical to secure this seat amidst several contests in strong Republican territories, all while holding a slim 51-seat majority.
Representing a district centered around Phoenix, Gallego faces off against Lake, a former TV news host who previously ran for the governorship of Arizona in 2022 without success. Both are emerging as the likely candidates to clinch their parties’ nominations with the primary elections set for Tuesday.
Arizona’s political landscape is roughly split between Democrats and Republicans. Over the years, particularly in the 2000s and 2010s, the state leaned Republican, endorsing every GOP presidential candidate for five consecutive election cycles. However, the political tides have shifted since Donald Trump’s 2016 win, leading to growing support for Democrats in urban areas like Phoenix and Tucson and their surroundings.
Current polls indicate that Gallego holds the upper hand over Lake. For instance, an Emerson College poll conducted on July 22-23 shows Gallego in the lead by four points, with 46% compared to Lake’s 42%. This survey involved 800 Arizona residents and has a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.
Another poll by Public Policy Polling from July 19-20 reveals a more significant gap, with Gallego ahead by seven points (49% to 42%) among 736 registered voters, carrying a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.
Interestingly, a poll from J.L. Partners—commissioned by Lake’s campaign—found her narrowly ahead by one point (44% to 43%) from a sample of 513 likely voters surveyed from July 10-11.
In a separate poll by Remington Research, conducted from June 29 to July 1, both candidates were reported to be tied, each capturing 47% support from 638 likely voters. Notably, previous polling has shown Lake trailing. Remington is classified as a Republican polling firm by FiveThirtyEight.
Lake has firmly established herself as a staunch advocate for Trump, often repeating his unsubstantiated claims of mass voter fraud from the 2020 election that saw Biden win by a mere 10,000 votes in Arizona.
Her prior attempt at the governorship in 2022 resulted in a loss to Democrat Katie Hobbs, a former Secretary of State. Lake has been a figure at the recent Republican National Convention held in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
On the other hand, Gallego, a former U.S. Marine, made his mark in Congress after being elected to the House in 2014, representing a reliably Democratic district in Arizona’s biggest city. He has successfully secured reelection since then, achieving 77% of the vote in the 2022 elections.