In the race for Montana’s U.S. Senate seat, Senator Jon Tester finds himself trailing his Republican opponent, Tim Sheehy, according to a recent poll released on Sunday.
With Election Day approaching and potential changes to Congress and the presidency on the line, the Senate majority hangs in the balance. Currently, the Democrats hold a slim lead with 51 seats and four independents, while Republicans sit at 49.
Tester, who has been a Democrat senator since 2006, is up against Sheehy, a businessman and former Navy SEAL backed by Donald Trump. The stakes are high, as Montana tends to lean Republican and strongly supported Trump in the 2020 election.
An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey conducted between October 23 and 25 with 1,000 likely voters shows Sheehy leading Tester by 4 points, 50% to 46%. This marks a slight tightening from previous polls where Sheehy had a stronger lead.
Among likely voters, 3% remain undecided, and 2% are opting for a different candidate. Among undecideds, Tester is beginning to close the gap, with 48% support compared to Sheehy’s 50.6%.
Both candidates enjoy similar favorability in the state, with around 48% of respondents viewing them positively. However, there’s a noticeable gender divide: women favor Tester by 14 points, while men back Sheehy by 22 points, according to Spencer Kimball from Emerson College Polling.
This poll suggests an increase in Sheehy’s support since an earlier Emerson survey in August, where he led by just 2 points.
Ben Allan Smith/The Missoulian via AP
Other polls, including a recent New York Times/Siena College survey, indicate Sheehy has been leading as well, at 52% to 44% for Tester. Aggregate data from FiveThirtyEight also shows Sheehy ahead by 5.3 points.
The Cook Political Report classifies this race as “lean Republican,” and as of Sunday, The Hill estimates Sheehy has a 79% chance of flipping the seat, while FiveThirtyEight gives him a 90% probability of victory.