The race for the White House is heating up, with Vice President Kamala Harris slightly losing ground according to Nate Silver’s recent forecast. On Saturday, updates showed Harris’ chances of winning the Electoral College slipping from 58.1 percent to 57.3 percent, while former President Donald Trump gained momentum, rising from 41.7 percent to 42.5 percent.
This change comes as Trump appears to be making headway in key swing states. Recent polls from the New York Times/Siena College indicate that in Michigan, Harris holds 48 percent support, just a hair ahead of Trump’s 47 percent. In Wisconsin, Harris is clinging to a narrow lead of 49 to 47 percent over Trump.
Both states’ results fall within the ±4 percentage point margin of error, based on surveys of 688 likely voters in Michigan and 680 in Wisconsin.
AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast
Despite the nail-biting numbers, Silver’s model still gives Harris a slight edge overall. The FiveThirtyEight polling average indicates Harris leads nationally by approximately 3 points (48.6 to 45.7 percent) and maintains an advantage in several swing states, including Pennsylvania, where she leads by 1.3 points (48.2 to 46.9 percent).
Silver’s analytical approach, termed the Silver Bulletin, combines various factors like polling data, economic trends, and historical context to gauge each candidate’s likelihood of winning. He recently suggested two paths for Harris to secure an Electoral College victory: either capturing Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin or winning North Carolina and Georgia—or both.
“The forecast is still within toss-up territory, but we’d prefer having Harris’ hand to play at this point,” Silver commented on Friday.
However, the contest remains incredibly tight, with Harris’ margins typically falling within the error range in multiple polls. Silver does point out that unexpected outcomes, like an underdog candidate winning, aren’t beyond the realm of possibility, especially given Trump’s ability to outperform polling on Election Day.
Recent trends indicate minimal momentum shifts for Harris, while Trump gains slight advantages in states like North Carolina, Minnesota, and Texas. The FiveThirtyEight averages show Trump narrowly leading in Georgia by 0.9 points and in North Carolina by 0.4 points.
Interestingly, Minnesota—once thought safe for Democrats—is shifting toward a “toss-up,” heightening the stakes for Trump. The last GOP presidential candidate to win Minnesota was back in 1972, making any victory here significant.
Current forecasts from 270toWin suggest Harris with 226 electoral votes to Trump’s 219, but many critical states remain undecided. The results in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, and North Carolina will likely decide the winner.
One bright spot for Harris is in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, where polling shows her as a 91 percent favorite to secure a key electoral vote, which could prove vital in a tight contest.
Pennsylvania’s importance cannot be overstated. It’s a potential deciding factor, pivotal for either candidate’s strategy. If Harris clinches Pennsylvania and other solid Democratic states, Trump would need to turn his focus on states like Minnesota, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia to take the win.
Recognizing this, Trump is ramping up his campaign in Pennsylvania, planning rallies on September 29 in Erie and October 5 in Butler. These events mark his return to the state following an assassination attempt in July.
Harris and her running mate Tim Walz are also gearing up for their first joint campaign event in central Pennsylvania next week, aiming to connect with voters.
Silver’s model includes a variety of indicators beyond just polling, such as economic factors and past voting patterns. It also contemplates various possible scenarios, highlighting the potential for complications akin to the contentious 2000 Florida recount.
As the November election approaches, both campaigns are likely to increase their focus on battleground states. With less than six weeks to go, the candidates need to rally support and win over undecided voters.