As we approach the 2024 election, Donald Trump has been given promising odds, according to Nate Silver’s recent predictions. He estimates Trump has a 24.4% chance of winning all seven key swing states, making this the most favorable outcome for the former president.
On the other hand, Vice President Harris has a 15.6% chance of capturing all battleground states. Silver’s analysis indicates that if Harris wins every swing state except Arizona and Georgia, she could still claim victory. However, the odds of this happening are only 1.7%. There’s a slightly better 3.4% chance that she might take Georgia but lose Arizona, and a 2.9% chance for the opposite outcome.
The forecast further suggests a 4.6% probability that Republicans could sweep all swing states apart from Nevada, where Harris is narrowly leading. In this scenario, Trump would secure the presidency while Harris would wrap up 232 Electoral College votes.
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Generally, Silver highlights that Harris’s best chance of winning hinges on securing a mix of three to five battleground states. If she successfully claims Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, she would amass 270 Electoral College votes and have an 86.2% likelihood of winning the overall race, per the analysis.
Current polls show Harris ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, while Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. FiveThirtyEight’s tracker reveals a slight advantage for Trump in Pennsylvania, with just a 0.2-point lead, although Silver’s model suggests it’s a dead heat there.
If Harris manages to win only Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, her chances of winning the election drop drastically to 0.6%. With Pennsylvania in her column, her winning odds jump to an impressive 98.9%, but this scenario has only a 2.9% likelihood of happening according to Silver’s model.
Recent weeks have seen a shift in the electoral landscape, favoring Trump more than Harris. As it stands, Silver predicts a 53.1% chance for Trump to win the Electoral College, while Harris’s odds sit at 46.6%. FiveThirtyEight projects a similar trend, giving Trump a 51% chance of victory compared to Harris’s 49%. Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics forecasts Trump winning every battleground state, totaling 312 Electoral College votes compared to Harris’s 227.
These shifts come in the wake of four national polls this month indicating that Trump has taken the lead over Harris.