A recent poll from Suffolk University, commissioned by USA Today, reveals a tight race in Wisconsin, casting a shadow over Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign. Polling analyst Nate Silver notes that this poll is crucial, especially as Donald Trump begins to gain an edge in national and battleground state polling averages.
Conducted from October 20 to 23 among 500 likely voters, the poll shows Trump at 48 percent, narrowly ahead of Harris, who stands at 47 percent. Silver highlighted that Wisconsin, which played a significant role in Joe Biden’s 2020 win, is now regarded as a toss-up, moving away from earlier polls that had Harris leading.
Some recent surveys in Wisconsin indicate a close race, with candidates often tied or exchanging marginal leads. Nationally, Harris holds a slight advantage, leading Trump by 1.2 points with 48.7 percent to his 47.5 percent. Nevertheless, Trump’s strong performance in battleground states shifts the model in his favor, giving him a 54 percent chance of clinching the Electoral College.
Trump is performing well in states like Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, while Harris maintains slight leads in Wisconsin and Michigan, with Nevada currently tied. If these trends continue, Trump would secure 281 electoral votes, compared to Harris’s 251, leaving Nevada’s six votes out due to the tie.
Wisconsin, historically a Democratic stronghold, is being intensely contested due to its working-class and rural voter base. Post-2016, it has leaned towards Trump, breaking a streak of Democratic wins since 1988. For Harris to secure the presidency, winning Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—traditionally known as the “blue wall”—is deemed essential.
Silver points out that the current data suggest Trump is charting a slightly stronger path to victory, marking his highest win probability since mid-September.