Recent polling indicates a competitive race in Arizona for the 2024 presidential election, with former President Donald Trump slightly ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in most surveys.
Arizona, with its 11 Electoral College votes, is a crucial battleground state. Immigration is turning out to be a pivotal issue among voters, making this a key area for both candidates as they seek to reach the required 270 electoral votes to win.
A recent AtlasIntel poll from September 20-25 shows Trump at 50% and Harris at 49%, giving Trump a narrow 1-point advantage. This survey involved 946 likely voters and has a 3-point margin of error.
Conversely, a Morning Consult poll for Bloomberg News during the same week reveals Harris leading with 50%, while Trump follows at 47%. This poll includes 926 likely voters and shows Harris with a 3-point boost. When looking at 977 registered voters, she still holds an advantage, 49% to Trump’s 46%.
Another poll, sponsored by Fox News and conducted by Beacon Research from September 20-24, shows Trump ahead of Harris by 3 points, with 51% to 48%. When expanding the sample to 1,021 registered voters, his lead narrows to 2 points, 50% to 48%.
In contrast, a USA Today/Suffolk University poll from September 21-24 indicates Trump has his largest lead yet, at 48% compared to Harris’s 42%, marking a 6-point edge with a 4.4% margin of error.
According to the FiveThirtyEight polling average as of September 30, Trump has a slim 1.1-point lead, polling at 47.9% versus 46.8% for Harris.
Immigration stands out as a pressing issue, with 21% of respondents in the USA Today/Suffolk poll identifying it as their top priority. A Fox News poll shows that 56% of voters trust Trump more on border security compared to 41% who favor Harris.
This emphasis on immigration aligns with Harris’ visit to the U.S.-Mexico border on September 27, coinciding with the release of the USA Today/Suffolk University poll. Harris is advocating for a revival of a bipartisan border bill that Senate Republicans previously blocked. The Hispanic vote is essential in Arizona, where the poll revealed Harris leading with 47% support among this demographic, while Trump sits at 35%. Approximately 1.3 million Hispanic voters are registered in Arizona, making up about 25% of the electorate.
The dynamics of the presidential race in Arizona starkly contrast with the Senate race. A Fox News poll from September 26 indicates that Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake comfortably, with 55% of likely voters supporting Gallego compared to 42% for Lake.
Interestingly, many voters appear inclined to split their votes. The poll shows Independents are 16 points more likely to support Gallego over Harris, while Republicans are 10 points more likely to do the same. Only 3% of those polled indicated they would vote for both Lake and Harris.