Early voting is off to a strong start in Georgia, a pivotal battleground state where polls indicate a tight race. So far, approximately 328,000 voters have participated, according to Gabriel Sterling, the chief operating officer for Georgia’s secretary of state. This number more than doubles the 2020 record of 136,000—set during Joe Biden’s historic win as the first Democrat to carry the state since 1992.
Because Democrats tend to vote early and by mail, this trend could potentially benefit their chances in Georgia. Still, polls show Donald Trump is slightly leading Vice President Kamala Harris. The poll tracker 538 has Trump ahead by just 1 point, and Nate Silver’s tracker shows a 0.9-point advantage for the former president.
Most individual polls reveal Trump with a lead between 1 and 6 points, often within the margin of error. For instance, an InsiderAdvantage poll conducted on October 14-15 placed Trump 2 points ahead of Harris, aligning with an error margin of 3.7 points.
Another poll from RMG Research (October 7-10) indicated Trump was up by 3 points, also within its 3.6-point margin of error. Conversely, a Fabrizio, Lee and Associates poll sponsored by the Trump campaign showed him leading by 5 points, outside the survey’s 3.5-point margin of error. Similarly, a Quinnipiac University poll from late September noted Trump’s 5-point lead in direct matchups, expanding to 6 points with third-party candidates included, despite being conducted during Hurricane Helene.
Tied races have also been reported, with some polls—like those by Trafalgar Group and Redfield and Wilton Strategies—indicating a dead heat. In total, eight polls since September have shown the race as tied, while others have given Harris a slim lead of 1 to 3 points, also within error margins. Since September, the vice president has topped eight polls.
With its 16 electoral votes at stake, Georgia remains crucial for both candidates. Biden’s narrow 12,000-vote victory in 2020 highlighted how essential this state is—last time a candidate won without it was in 2012 when Mitt Romney lost to Barack Obama.
Currently, forecasts from both 538 and Nate Silver project a Trump win. A recent Harvard University poll showed him with a narrow lead (48% to 47%) among early voters in battleground states. However, nationwide, Harris has a lead among early voters at 51% to Trump’s 43%. Notably, around 70% of the 150 million votes cast in 2020 were submitted before Election Day.
Georgia voters have between October 15 and November 1 to take advantage of early in-person voting, including multiple Saturdays, with some counties even offering Sunday voting.