As we roll into the final three weeks before the Election, Kamala Harris is still holding a slight edge over Donald Trump in national polls, though swing states remain too close to call.
Polling data suggests that the battle between Vice President Harris and former President Trump is heating up, with Trump narrowing Harris’ overall lead in recent weeks.
In the key battleground states that could sway the election outcome, both candidates are essentially tied, with no one leading by more than 2 points in any reported averages.
To secure victory this November, Harris would ideally want to capture the critical blue wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. On the flip side, Trump’s most direct route to 270 Electoral College votes involves winning North Carolina and Georgia while also flipping Pennsylvania.
National Averages
According to the polling aggregator 538, Harris currently leads Trump by 2.4 points nationally (48.5% to 46.1%)—a slight decrease from a 2.6-point lead on October 8.
In Nate Silver’s latest model, Harris’s lead is slightly larger at 2.8 points (49.3% to 46.5%), indicating a minor improvement for Trump since the previous week.
RealClearPolitics, which often shows Republican-leaning trends, has Harris ahead by 1.7 points (48.9% to 47.2%). This is down from a 2-point lead a week prior.
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill currently estimates a 51% chance of victory for Harris, suggesting a tightly contested race ahead.
Swing States
In battleground states, 538 reports Harris is leading by narrow margins: 0.6 points in Wisconsin, 0.7 points in Pennsylvania, 0.8 points in Michigan, and 0.6 points in Nevada. Trump shows slight leads in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, with margins of 0.9, 1, and 1.8 points, respectively.
The projections indicate that, if trends hold, Harris could secure the election with 276 Electoral College votes.
Silver’s forecasts also favor Harris in the major blue wall states, with slight leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. However, he shows Trump edging him out in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona.
RealClearPolitics presents a different picture, suggesting Trump is slightly ahead in most battleground states, except Wisconsin where Harris maintains a narrow lead of 0.3 points.
Recent Polling
A recent CBS News/YouGov survey of 2,719 registered voters places Harris 3 points ahead of Trump (51% to 48%). However, when focusing on battleground states, her lead narrows to just 1 point (50% to 49%).
This survey was conducted from October 8-11 and has a margin of error of +/- 2.3 points. Meanwhile, an ABC News/Ipsos poll shows a similar trend with Harris at 50% and Trump at 48% (margin of error: +/- 2.5 points).
In contrast, an Ativote poll indicates Trump with a 1-point lead (50% to 49%), capturing data from October 3-8 and featuring a margin of error of 3.1 points.