Senator Ted Cruz, a Texas Republican, will engage in his only U.S. Senate debate against Democratic challenger Colin Allred this Tuesday night, just three weeks ahead of Election Day.
Cruz, seeking a third term, has maintained a narrow lead over Allred, who has represented parts of Dallas suburbs since 2019. However, recent polling indicates the race is tightening, with Democrats eyeing Texas as a potential surprise win in the battle for Senate control.
In the 2018 elections, Cruz narrowly defeated Democrat Beto O’Rourke with a 50.9% to 48.3% vote. Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988.
Both candidates have seen substantial campaign funding, with Allred recently outpacing Cruz by nearly $10 million in the third quarter. Allred has garnered endorsements from former Republican Representatives Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, while Cruz has support from former President Donald Trump.
MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images; ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images
Cruz v. Allred: Poll Insights
According to FiveThirtyEight, Cruz leads by an average of 4 points across several polls, down from a 5.4-point lead earlier in September. A recent University of Houston poll shows Cruz with a 50% to 46% advantage, exceeding the poll’s margin of error.
A New York Times and Siena College poll also found Cruz leading 48% to 44%, reinforcing the tight nature of the race.
Despite this, an internal GOP poll from the Senate Leadership Fund indicated a closer race, with Cruz only ahead by 1 point, raising concerns among party strategists.
Debate Viewing Details
The debate will be held at the WFAA Studios in Dallas, starting at 7 p.m. CDT (8 p.m. ET), and will be moderated by reporters Jason Whitley and Gromer Jeffers Jr. It can be watched live across TEGNA stations in Texas and streamed on C-SPAN here.
The Importance of This Race
This election features 34 Senate seats, with Democrats currently holding a precarious majority of 47 seats against 49 for Republicans. As both parties aim to gain ground, Democrats target Cruz’s and Florida’s Rick Scott’s seats, while Republicans eye potential flips in Ohio, Arizona, and Montana.
Various models suggest Republicans could reclaim Senate control, with one projection estimating 51 seats for the GOP and 48 for Democrats. The Ohio Senate race, where Senator Sherrod Brown is up for reelection, is categorized as a toss-up.
Cruz cautioned voters last week, emphasizing that Democrats are committed to his defeat, suggesting that a Texas loss could markedly influence national politics.
Texas Early Voting Schedule
Early voting in Texas starts on October 21, following the Cruz-Allred debate. Registered voters can participate early at selected polling locations in their counties. Those wishing to vote by mail have until October 25 to request their ballots.