Experts believe naturalized citizens may play a key role in the 2024 presidential election.
According to a Pew Research Center analysis of U.S. Census data, nearly 24 million naturalized citizens were eligible to vote in 2022, making up about 10% of the electorate—an all-time high. This number is expected to grow as the federal government speeds up the processing of citizenship applications, which now take, on average, under five months, thanks to efforts to address backlogs from the Trump administration and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Since the 2020 election, approximately four million immigrants have become U.S. citizens, as reported by the Los Angeles Times.
More than half of the naturalized citizens reside in states like California, Florida, New York, and Texas. While they may not be the deciding factor in the presidential race overall, their influence could be significant in closely contested battleground states.
Naturalized citizens constitute 14% of eligible voters in Nevada and 9% in Arizona. They represent 7% in Georgia, around 5% in Pennsylvania and Michigan, and about 3% in Wisconsin. Georgia led the battleground states with 574,000 eligible naturalized voters in 2022, followed by Pennsylvania at 546,000, as noted by Pew.
Joe Biden won both Georgia and Pennsylvania narrowly in 2020, promising tight races come November. The American Immigration Council estimates that 7.4 million immigrants are likely eligible for naturalization, with significant numbers in six swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin—where their potential numbers exceed the election margins from 2020.
For instance, in Georgia, about 158,000 people could apply for citizenship, where Biden won by fewer than 12,000 votes, and in Pennsylvania, 153,300 could naturalize where the margin was about 80,000 votes. Arizona has around 164,400 eligible applicants, with Biden winning by roughly 10,000 votes.
It’s uncertain how many of these individuals will obtain citizenship in time to vote, but if enough do in swing states, they might sway the election’s outcome.
However, it’s crucial to remember that naturalized citizens are not a homogenous group and encompass a diverse range of backgrounds. Mexican and Indian citizens make up the largest segments, followed by others from Asia. Historically, Latino voters have leaned Democratic, though recent polls indicate that this advantage could be narrowing. Meanwhile, Southeast Asian voters may feel more connected to Kamala Harris’s candidacy as well.
Political experts suggest that both parties will actively engage this demographic in battleground states due to their potential importance in the election.
Jason Cade from the University of Georgia highlighted that the Biden administration has significantly expedited citizenship approvals compared to the prior administration, which had negatively impacted immigration application processing.
Yet, he speculates that while there might be more new citizens, it’s unclear if this shift will necessarily alter vote outcomes in competitive states like Georgia.
Cade further noted that many eligible for naturalization have lived in the U.S. for years, shaping their political perspectives similarly to their native-born neighbors. As seen in previous elections, naturalized citizens’ political views can vary widely.