According to a recent Fox News poll, former President Donald Trump has flipped the script on Vice President Kamala Harris when it comes to college graduates’ voting preferences. The poll, conducted among 1,110 registered voters from October 11-14, shows Trump leading Harris 50% to 48%, reversing her 2-point advantage in September. It’s important to note that the margin of error stands at +/- 3 percentage points.
When the data is specifically focused on voters with college degrees, Harris holds a slim 1-point edge (49% to 48%). However, the smaller sample size increases the margin of error to +/- 4.5 points.
In September, Harris enjoyed a solid 12-point lead among college grads (55% to 43%), and this trend shifted significantly from a 14-point lead in August (56% to 42%). Notably, Trump has gained support among white college-educated voters, now leading Harris 51% to 46%, a sharp recovery from being 12 points behind just a month prior.
While breaking down poll data into subcategories can lead to higher margins of error, the overall trend indicates that Trump is narrowing the gap with college graduates, a crucial demographic for Democrats.
In the 2020 election, President Biden won college graduates 55% to 43%, and in 2016, Hillary Clinton defeated Trump by 10 points within this group.
Trump’s ability to close the gap among college graduates—who represent about 41% of this electoral demographic, according to CNN—may be critical in the tightly contested 2024 election.
Democratic pollster Chris Anderson shared insights, stating, “The shifts toward Trump are subtle yet could have significant implications, particularly if he continues to make inroads among educated voters.” He emphasized that voter turnout will likely play a more decisive role than persuasion in determining the election’s outcome.
Harris is now recording her lowest support among college graduates (49%) and white degree holders (46%) since becoming the 2024 Democratic candidate. Meanwhile, Trump’s recent support stands at an all-time high for him within this demographic and among voters aged 65 and older (49%).
On the flip side, Harris has seen a dip to her lowest ratings among Black voters (67%) and older voters (47%). Historically, Trump has drawn substantial backing from white non-college educated voters, securing 64% and 65% of their votes in the 2016 and 2020 elections, respectively, according to Pew Research.