In a surprising turn of events, Donald Trump has surged to the lead in a recent New Hampshire poll, marking the first time he’s ahead in the state since President Joe Biden suspended his reelection campaign in July.
The New Hampshire Journal/Praecones Analytica poll, released this past Sunday, shows Trump with 50.2% compared to Vice President Kamala Harris’ 49.8%. The poll gathered responses from 622 registered voters between October 24 and 26, with Trump’s slim 0.4-point edge falling within the margin of error of +/- 5.12%. This lead is notable as it’s Trump’s first in the Granite State since he led Biden by a point in July, just days before Biden exited the race.
On the gubernatorial front, Republican Kelly Ayotte maintains a modest advantage over Democrat Joyce Craig, holding a 52 to 48 percent lead in the same New Hampshire Journal poll.
Harris, who is considered the presumptive Democratic nominee, has dominated other recent polls in the state. For instance, The Dartmouth Poll, conducted from October 5 to 18, showed Harris leading Trump by a significant 21 points (Harris 59, Trump 38) based on a sample of 2,211 registered voters.
However, a recent Emerson College poll indicated a much closer race, with Harris leading by just three points. This, along with the latest New Hampshire Journal results, suggests a tightening competition.
Though New Hampshire typically leans conservative and has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since George W. Bush in 2000, Trump’s campaign remains optimistic. Betting odds from Polymarket currently give Harris an 80% probability of winning the state.
Despite the uphill battle, Trump’s campaign continues to prioritize New Hampshire, dismissing earlier warnings from volunteers who suggested it was no longer a battleground state. “Granite Staters will not vote for dangerously liberal Kamala Harris, whose policies have inflated our energy bills and created a housing crisis in New Hampshire,” remarked Leavitt from Trump’s campaign.