Fox News has revised its election forecast for Arizona, moving from a tossup to a lean-Republican outlook, suggesting that former President Donald Trump is likely to secure a win in the state.
During an episode of America’s Newsroom on Tuesday, host Bill Hemmer discussed the implications, noting that Vice President Kamala Harris could still achieve Electoral College success without winning Arizona.
This forecast adjustment is based on an analysis of eight recent polls conducted in Arizona since early September, where Trump emerged as the leader in seven of the polls, while Harris captured one.
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Polling across 43 states indicates a strong tendency towards the major party candidates. However, seven states remain contentious battlegrounds, crucial for candidates striving to reach the pivotal 270 Electoral College votes necessary for victory.
The key battleground states include Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
Even if Fox News forecasts a Trump victory in Arizona, Harris can still carve out a path to the presidency by winning the other swing states. Hemmer emphasized the importance of the Blue Wall—Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—along with an electoral vote from Nebraska, stating that achieving these would help Harris reach the crucial 270 votes.
In another shift, Fox News has adjusted its Power Rankings, reclassifying the three Blue Wall states from lean-Democrat to tossup, resulting in six out of the seven battlegrounds now categorized as toss-ups. Notably, Trump won all seven states in 2016, while Joe Biden captured them all in 2020.
In a hypothetical scenario where Harris secures all Democratic states, the Blue Wall states, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, she could achieve exactly 270 Electoral Votes. This would assume Trump claimed every Republican-leaning state, plus Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona, and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, ultimately landing at 268 Electoral Votes.
To solidify his win, Trump will likely need to clinch at least two of the four largest battleground states: Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. However, a victory could still be possible for him by winning Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, even if he loses the remainder to Harris.
The looming election is shaping up to be one of the narrowest contests in U.S. history.