As the 2024 election approaches, swing states are becoming the focal point, especially North Carolina, where the race is heating up. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast indicates a neck-and-neck battle, with Vice President Kamala Harris trailing former President Donald Trump by only 0.4 points—Trump at 45.9% and Harris at 45.6%.
Trump secured North Carolina in both 2016 and 2020, and the state is now viewed as a potential tipping point, with a 10.7% chance of determining the next president based on Electoral College standings.
Polls in North Carolina have showcased some volatility. For example, the Cook Political Report recently shifted the state from “lean Republican” to “toss-up” after Harris overcame an 8-point deficit to lead by 2 points in a survey from August 14. However, other polls, including those from Emerson College and Fox News, have shown Trump with a slight edge, within the margin of error.
FiveThirtyEight predicts a narrow Republican victory by 0.6 points. Despite this, the Harris campaign recognizes North Carolina’s significance and has already targeted the state, with Harris making a stop in Raleigh to outline her economic plans and address issues like price gouging.
Political analyst Hildebrand points out that North Carolina is evolving demographically, mirroring trends from Barack Obama’s 2008 victory. Cities like Raleigh and Charlotte have shifted towards Democratic support, but growth in suburban and rural areas remains politically diverse.
“To win, Harris will need to perform well in cities while appealing to independents and moderate Republicans in less urban areas,” Hildebrand noted.
In a recent Emerson College poll, Harris led independent voters by 2 points. Her ability to connect on economic issues and reproductive rights will be vital in securing their support, especially given the stricter abortion laws enacted last year.
In the suburbs, particularly around Raleigh and Charlotte, issues like abortion could sway women voters, a key demographic for both campaigns, according to McLennan.
The campaign also has its sights set on younger and Hispanic voters. McLennan emphasized, “Engaging young voters in the Raleigh-Durham area is crucial, alongside addressing immigration concerns that resonate with the 309,000 Hispanic voters in the state.”
Recent surveys show Harris trailing Trump among younger voters and Hispanics in NC, despite leading them nationally. In a SurveyUSA poll, she garnered only 38% to Trump’s 53% among 18 to 34-year-olds and 36% to 61% among Hispanic voters.
Given current polling, McLennan forecasts a Trump win in North Carolina, yet he sees potential for Harris. “The Harris campaign is far better organized than those of Clinton or Biden in previous elections. With a robust ground game, she could indeed be the first Democrat to win North Carolina since Obama in 2008,” he added.
If successful, Harris would make history, marking the first Democratic win in the state since Obama’s tenure.