Democratic Congressman Adam Schiff is currently leading the race for California’s vacant Senate seat, according to a recent poll from the University of California Berkeley.
The poll, conducted from July 31 to August 11, shows Schiff receiving support from 53% of 3,765 likely voters. In contrast, his Republican opponent, former MLB star Steve Garvey, trails significantly with 33% backing—20 points behind Schiff.
Party affiliation played a crucial role in voters’ preferences. Schiff secured 84% of registered Democrats, while Garvey received 88% support from registered Republicans. Among those identifying as “strongly conservative,” Garvey found robust backing, while Schiff claimed 94% of “strongly liberal” voters.
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Mark DiCamillo, director of the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies Poll, commented that California’s demographic advantage for Democrats gives Schiff a substantial edge.
When it comes to key issues influencing voters, abortion rights emerged as a major concern. Fifty-five percent of respondents chose candidates based on their support for abortion rights. Schiff, a vocal advocate for federal protection of abortion access, contrasts with Garvey, who is personally against abortion but claims to support California voters’ opinions on the matter.
Immigration policy is also pivotal, with 44% of voters prioritizing tougher laws. However, only 21% of Schiff’s supporters viewed it as essential, in stark contrast to 84% of Garvey’s backers.
Schiff’s campaign has consistently shown strength since announcing his candidacy in January to replace the late Senator Dianne Feinstein. Historical data from FiveThirtyEight indicates he has maintained an average lead of over 5 percentage points in a crowded race. He and Garvey emerged as the top candidates, surpassing Democratic Representatives Katie Porter and Barbara Lee, among others.
In June, a Real Clear Politics average showed Schiff leading Garvey by 20 points, while another poll from the Public Policy Institute of California revealed a similar trend, with Schiff at 62% compared to Garvey’s 37%.