Senator Sherrod Brown’s re-election campaign in Ohio is facing a challenging turn of events, with recent polls indicating that his Republican opponent, Bernie Moreno, has taken the lead for the first time.
Previously in the lead, Brown now finds himself trailing Moreno, who has a narrow 2-point advantage in two significant polls. One poll by ActiVote shows Moreno at 51 percent compared to Brown’s 49 percent, based on a survey of 400 likely voters conducted from August 16 to September 22. Another by RMG Research shows Moreno leading 48 percent to Brown’s 46 percent from a larger sample of 781 voters.
While both leads are within the margin of error, they clearly indicate a competitive race with the Cook Political Report labeling Ohio’s Senate race as a toss-up.
Moreno, despite not having full backing from the Ohio Republican Party, has garnered support from former President Donald Trump, which seems to be positively impacting his standing. Pollster Scott Rasmussen notes that Trump leads by 11 points in Ohio, which may help Moreno as he captures 83 percent of Trump’s voter base compared to Brown’s support from 93 percent of Harris voters.
Brown’s earlier leads in various polls have diminished, with the latest Morning Consult poll showing him just 2 points ahead. A prior Emerson College poll from September even placed him only 1 point above Moreno.
Interestingly, a July/August poll from ActiVote had given Brown a slightly larger 5-point lead. Despite this, most of the gaps have narrowed, indicating shifting voter sentiment. Previous polls had also suggested Brown leading by varying margins, with his strongest showing in a May poll where he was ahead by 8 points.
Historically, Ohio voters swing between Democratic and Republican Senate candidates, with Republicans winning the last three elections. This year’s race is crucial for party control in the Senate. If Democrats secure the presidency and their incumbents hold their seats, including Ohio, they could maintain leadership by winning a couple more open seats in battleground states.
On the other hand, if Trump wins the presidency and Republicans gain seats like West Virginia, they would only need one more to take control. Current predictions from Decision Desk HQ suggest a 70 percent chance that Republicans will regain the Senate.