The race for the White House in Pennsylvania is heating up, with Vice President Kamala Harris maintaining a slight edge following her strong debate performance against former President Donald Trump in Philadelphia on September 10.
Since that debate, Harris has gained traction in national polls, averaging a 2.8-point lead according to FiveThirtyEight as of last Friday.
This momentum is particularly crucial as Pennsylvania is a key battleground state that could influence the election outcome in November. A recent survey from Spotlight PA and MassINC indicates that Harris leads Trump by 4 points (50% to 46%). The poll, conducted from September 12 to 18, also reveals that 49% of Pennsylvania voters view Harris favorably, compared to 44% for Trump.
Other polls show Harris with a more modest lead. Morning Consult’s poll, which surveyed 1,756 likely voters from September 9 to 18, shows her ahead by 2 points (49% to 47%). Similarly, a survey from Emerson College and The Hill found her leading 48% to 47% from a sample of 880 likely voters.
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A poll by The Washington Post shows Harris and Trump tied at 48% based on responses from 1,003 likely voters. However, a poll from The New York Times and Siena College awarded Harris a 4-point advantage, with her at 50% compared to Trump’s 46%.
As a result of her polling success, Harris’s chances of victory in the upcoming election have improved. While Nate Silver’s previous forecasts leaned toward Trump, the post-debate landscape seems to favor Harris now. As of Friday, he estimates Harris has a 51.1% chance of winning, compared to Trump’s 48.6%. Furthermore, Harris’s likelihood of securing Pennsylvania is forecasted at 53.7% versus Trump’s 46.3%.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s election simulator, Harris has a 60% chance of winning overall, while Trump sits at 40%. The simulator also predicts a strong performance for Harris in Pennsylvania, estimating her to win 58 out of 100 simulations against Trump.