The 2024 presidential race is shaping up to be a lot tighter than in 2020, with Vice President Kamala Harris making strides in the polls against former President Donald Trump. Despite her gains, the competition is closer compared to when Joe Biden was the Democratic nominee.
Biden officially exited the race on July 21, following internal strife among Democrats about whether it was time for a new candidate after his challenging debate with Trump last June. On the same day, Biden extended his endorsement to Harris.
Trump has been quick to downplay Harris’ polling successes, claiming he has a significant lead. He further points to the 2016 election results, which saw Hillary Clinton ahead in the polls but ultimately lose due to narrow defeats in key swing states.
Throughout the 2020 campaign, Biden consistently led Trump in polls and won the overall popular vote, though the electoral outcomes were incredibly close in several states. Analysts noted that while polls underestimated Trump’s grassroots support, they still accurately reflected the election results.
Harris is not letting Trump’s remarks faze her, describing his critiques as stale. Her campaign is encouraging supporters to stay focused and aware that the race is tightly contested.
Currently, the polling indicates a slight advantage for Harris over Trump, but she is not performing as strongly as Biden did in 2020.
Let’s break down some of the current polling data.
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National Polling Average
According to FiveThirtyEight’s latest national polling average, Harris leads Trump by 3.3 points, with her support at about 47.1% compared to Trump’s 43.8%. In contrast, Biden boasted a 7.1-point lead over Trump on the same date in 2020.
Ultimately, Biden secured the national popular vote by a margin of 4.4%, garnering 51.3% support while Trump received 46.9%.
Battleground States
The path to victory is expected to hinge on crucial swing states like Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. While Biden narrowly captured these states in 2020, he faced tight margins, particularly in Georgia and Wisconsin. Trump previously won all these states against Clinton in 2016.
Presently, Harris has a slight lean in these battlegrounds: she leads by 0.4% in Georgia, 2.4% in Michigan, 1.3% in Pennsylvania, and 3.5% in Wisconsin. During the same period in 2020, Trump was ahead in Georgia by 1.3%, with Biden leading in the other states significantly.
Biden ultimately prevailed in all four states, with margins of victory ranging from 0.3% in Georgia to 2.8% in Michigan.
Will the Polls Be Accurate?
There’s an ongoing debate about the accuracy of polling, particularly concerning Trump’s support. Some believe voters may hesitate to disclose their preferences to pollsters. Others point to potential biases in polling methods.
A Pew Research Center report highlighted that fewer Republicans are answering surveys, complicating accurate representation. This trend could be due to education levels and distrust in social institutions impacting participation.
Despite enhancements made by pollsters since 2016 and 2020, the race remains close, with Harris holding only a slight edge over Trump.