Recent polling from Rasmussen Reports indicates that Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump in Michigan, marking a notable shift in Democratic fortunes since President Joe Biden endorsed Harris as his successor on July 21.
As the official Democratic nominee, Harris has gained traction in both national and swing state polls, surpassing Trump in several areas where Biden previously struggled.
Trump, however, has downplayed these polls, claiming during a Thursday press conference that he is “leading by a lot.” He referenced his 2016 campaign, when many polls showed him trailing Hillary Clinton but he eventually won the presidency thanks to a favorable Electoral College outcome.
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Michigan Insights
The Rasmussen poll conducted from August 13 to 17 reveals Harris with a narrow 1-point lead over Trump, with 48 percent of likely voters in Michigan supporting her compared to 47 percent for Trump. This lead widens to 3 points when factoring in third-party candidates, with Harris at 47 percent and Trump at 44 percent, while Green Party’s Jill Stein, Libertarian Chase Oliver, and independent Cornel West each receive 1 percent.
Michigan is a critical battleground state, pivotal for Elector College success. Trump narrowly won Michigan in 2016 before Biden flipped it back to Democrats in 2020, a significant turnaround considering Michigan hadn’t picked a Republican since 1988.
Pennsylvania Dynamics
Another Rasmussen poll from the same period also highlights a competitive race in Pennsylvania, where Trump holds a slight 1-point lead over Harris in direct matchups. However, when third-party candidates are included, Harris comes out on top by 1 point.
In this poll, Trump stands at 47 percent against Harris’s 46 percent when solely head-to-head, but factoring in third-party options, Harris’s percentage remains the same while Trump drops to 45 percent. The poll surveyed 1,312 likely voters in Pennsylvania.
Similar to Michigan, Pennsylvania went for Trump in 2016 but shifted back to Biden in 2020, marking a significant electoral trend since Republicans hadn’t won there since 1988.
Polling Averages
Across both states, polling averages show that Harris is ahead of Trump. According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris leads by an average of 2.6 percent in Michigan and by about 1.4 percent in Pennsylvania.
Detailing the averages, in Michigan, Harris holds 45.9 percent to Trump’s 43.3 percent. For Pennsylvania, Harris is at 46.1 percent while Trump is at 44.7 percent. Nate Silver’s analysis further indicates Harris averages 46 percent in Michigan against Trump’s 43.1 percent and similarly 46.2 percent to 44.7 percent in Pennsylvania.