As November’s election approaches, former President Donald Trump remains the frontrunner in Florida, though the race is shaping up to be quite competitive, recent polling suggests.
A survey conducted by the Independent Center and The Bullfinch Group from September 20 to 23 indicated that Trump held a slim 1-point edge over Vice President Kamala Harris, sitting at 48% to her 47%. This poll, based on 600 registered voters, carries a margin of error of ±4 points.
This tight race contrasts with other polls in the state. Shortly before this survey was released, the Democratic National Committee labeled Florida as a “priority state” with 30 crucial Electoral College votes, pledging over $400,000 to enhance Harris’ campaign efforts.
Florida has historically been a key battleground, demonstrated in the incredibly close 2000 election. However, recent trends show a shift toward Republican dominance, especially after Trump’s wins in 2016 and 2020. Additionally, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis achieved a convincing re-election in 2022, defeating Democrat Charlie Crist by 19 points.
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This November, voters will also decide on reversing the state’s stringent six-week abortion ban, a topic that may energize Democratic voters in both the presidential and local races.
Political analyst Thomas Gift noted that while Harris is likely to struggle in Florida, Trump might find himself needing to focus more on the state than he desires. “Even if Harris appears set to lose, it could still drain Trump’s resources elsewhere,” he explained.
While the Independent Center and The Bullfinch Group put Trump ahead by just a point, other polls display a more robust lead for the former president. According to a live tracker from 538, Trump’s average lead over Harris is 4.1 points—better than the 3.3-point margin he held over President Joe Biden in 2020.
An Emerson College/The Hill poll conducted from September 3-5 showed Trump beating Harris by 5 points (50% to 45%) with a ±3.4 point margin of error. Similarly, a Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll of 1,602 likely voters from September 16-19 found Trump ahead by 5 points as well (50% to 45%).
The latest Morning Consult survey, comprising 2,948 likely voters from September 9-18, also placed Trump ahead, this time by 3 points (50% to 47%).
Currently, the Race to the White House forecaster gives Trump an impressive 83% chance of winning Florida in the upcoming election.