As the election heats up, both Democrats and Republicans are eyeing overseas voters as a key demographic that could sway the results of this closely contested race.
Recent polling has shown the competition between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is tight, with a margin of just 2½ to 3 points. This leaves room for neither party to take any voters for granted.
Enter Democrats Abroad and Republicans Overseas, the official entities representing their parties abroad. These groups are actively reaching out to American citizens living overseas, reminding them of their voting rights and the impact their votes can have back home.
According to the Federal Voting Assistance Program (FVAP), roughly 4.4 million Americans are currently living outside the U.S. While estimates suggest that about 2.8 million of these individuals are eligible to vote, historical participation rates have been low, with only about 3.4% voting in 2022 and 8% in 2020. The largest concentrations of eligible voters can be found in Canada (about 605,000) and the UK (around 298,000).
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Other notable communities include approximately 150,000 Americans in France and Israel, and around 100,000 in Japan.
Democrats Abroad operates on a fully volunteer basis and boasts committees in 52 countries. Its members span over 190 nations globally. For instance, the Windsor, Canada chapter has been active in canvassing the Detroit-Windsor area and aims to connect with more voters before the election.
“We’ve received a lot of encouragement and barely any pushback,” noted David Shelton from the Windsor chapter. They believe over 20,000 eligible American voters reside in Windsor alone, highlighting the significance of voter turnout in critical swing states like Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin.
Similarly, Democrats Abroad UK is leveraging innovative methods to engage an estimated 200,000 voters in London and nearby areas, utilizing both traditional advertising like bus stop ads and digital outreach to connect with students and expatriates.
As for Trump, he has also addressed overseas voters, promising tax breaks and encouraging them to register and vote. However, the Republican Party is simultaneously challenging the legitimacy of overseas ballots with lawsuits in key states, raising concerns about military voters’ participation.
Military personnel, who often face challenges in ensuring their votes are counted, are particularly worried about these legal actions, according to reports. State officials refute the allegations that the lawsuits aim to intimidate voters, reiterating that all ballots sent out are eligible.