A recent poll indicates that former President Donald Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania among likely voters has diminished as Election Day approaches.
With just 81 days until the big day, Trump is in a tight race with Vice President Kamala Harris, based on findings from an August poll conducted by Emerson College and RealClearPennsylvania. The survey, which examined 1,000 likely voters from August 13 to 14, shows Trump with 49 percent support and Harris at 48 percent—falling within the poll’s 3 percent margin of error, effectively making it a statistical tie.
Digging deeper into the stats reveals some challenges for Trump, particularly as Harris has gained traction since announcing her candidacy for the 2024 election. Among respondents deemed very likely to vote, 49 percent favored Trump, a slight dip from the 50.5 percent support he received in a late July poll conducted by Emerson College and The Hill.
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On the flip side, 48 percent of the same very likely voters supported Harris in August, up from 45 percent in the previous month shortly after her campaign launch.
Pennsylvania, with its 19 Electoral College votes, is seen as critical for both candidates’ paths to victory this November. Joe Biden secured the state for Democrats in the 2020 election by a narrow 1.2 percent margin over Trump.
Polling also suggests that Harris is gaining momentum in other important swing states. For instance, a recent survey shows her leading Trump by four points in Arizona and five points in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
“It feels like a long honeymoon period for her right now,” remarked Debbie Walsh, director of the Center for American Women in Politics at Rutgers University.
The Democratic National Convention starts on Monday in Chicago, where Harris has already been designated the party’s presidential nominee.