Donald Trump’s chances of winning the presidency again have improved since June 27, particularly after his debate performance against Joe Biden, as reported by betting platform Polymarket.
As of Tuesday morning, Polymarket indicates Trump with a 64.3% likelihood of winning in November, compared to Kamala Harris’s 35.7%. His odds have risen since just before the debate when they were 60% versus Biden’s 34%.
During the debate on June 28, Biden appeared to lose his focus at times, sparking conversations about his age and cognitive abilities at 81. This prompted significant pressure within the Democratic Party, leading to Biden’s surprise announcement on July 21 that he would withdraw from the race and endorse Harris as his successor.
Polymarket not only predicts a national victory for Trump but also shows him leading in seven pivotal swing states: Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. In the 2020 election, Biden won all except North Carolina.
Current odds for Trump to win those states are as follows: 60% in Nevada, 72% in Arizona, 70% in Georgia, 68% in North Carolina, 61% in Pennsylvania, 59% in Michigan, and 57% in Wisconsin.
CHARLY TRIBALLEAU/AFP/SARAH RICE/GETTY
FiveThirtyEight’s latest polling, released on Monday, showed Harris with a slight 1.8-point lead at 48.2% compared to Trump’s 46.4%. This is a drop from her previous 2.4-point lead in mid-October. It’s important to note that due to the Electoral College, Trump could win the presidency while losing the popular vote, a scenario he experienced in 2016 against Hillary Clinton.
In another analysis that focuses on opinion polling, FiveThirtyEight has Trump at a 51% probability of winning versus Harris at 49%. This report also warns of an extremely slim chance of having no Electoral College winner.
As early voting continues, millions of ballots have already been cast, and initial reports suggest Harris leads among early voters. However, this trend may not reflect the larger voting populace since Democrats typically vote early more often than Republicans, and Trump has raised concerns about mail-in ballots, claims that have been debunked by experts.