The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has its eyes on a disturbance brewing in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico that could potentially turn into a tropical storm, bringing more rainfall to Florida just a week after the impact of Hurricane Helene.
Hurricane Helene hit Florida last Thursday as a powerful Category 4 storm, packing winds up to 140 mph. It swept through the Big Bend region before making its way north, causing devastation in Georgia and several Southern states. Associated Press reports indicate that the storm led to over 150 fatalities and significant damage, with emergency services addressing issues like storm surge and heavy rains that threatened dams and flooded areas including Asheville, North Carolina.
Even five days post-storm, many Florida counties are still under boil water advisories, and the aftermath is felt far beyond the Sunshine State.
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The Atlantic hurricane season is still active, with the NHC keeping tabs on Tropical Storm Kirk and another unnamed system east of Florida—both expected to remain offshore, potentially causing just strong rip currents on the east coast.
However, they’re closely monitoring another system that has a chance of developing into a tropical storm soon. According to the NHC, “A broad trough of low pressure is creating a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern Caribbean Sea through the southern Gulf of Mexico.” They’re noting that conditions might favor gradual development, and a tropical depression could emerge by the end of this week or over the weekend. Residents of the U.S. Gulf Coast should stay informed about this developing system.
The disturbance currently has a slim chance—around 0 percent—of forming in the next 48 hours, but that probability could rise to 40 percent over the next week.
While it remains uncertain whether the storm will make landfall, meteorologists urge vigilance. “As of now, the disturbance is not well organized,” noted meteorologist Hurt.
This weekend, Tampa could see a 60 percent chance of increased rain. While flooding isn’t expected, it may hinder recovery efforts related to Hurricane Helene, and there’s a possibility of minor street flooding and temporary ponding due to the rain.
If development occurs, it could amplify the risk of rain for parts of Florida as well.