With just six weeks until Election Day, the race for the White House has reached a deadlock. According to a recent CNN poll, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are tied among registered voters.
The survey, conducted by CNN and SSRS Opinion Panel with responses from 2,074 registered voters across the U.S. from September 19 to 22, reveals both candidates garner 47 percent support in a multicandidate scenario, which also includes Green Party’s Jill Stein and Libertarian Chase Oliver.
Favorability ratings are fairly close, with Harris enjoying a favorable view from 45 percent of voters compared to 42 percent for Trump.
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When it comes to the main issues driving voters, the economy tops the list at 41 percent, followed by democracy preservation (21 percent), immigration (12 percent), and reproductive rights (11 percent).
As analysts predict, the 2024 election is shaping up to be one of the closest battles in American history. FiveThirtyEight indicates that Harris and Trump’s contest falls into the “toss-up” category, with four pivotal swing states—Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada—each separated by just a 1-point margin.
In an article published on Tuesday, FiveThirtyEight’s G. Elliot Morris hinted at the likelihood of a record slim electoral margin, potentially the tightest since 1876. A CNN analysis also highlighted this election as the “narrowest in the past 60 years,” noting no candidate has managed to establish a lead greater than 5 points in any recent national polls.
As CNN analyst Harry Enten pointed out, “It’s unusual for no candidate to have led by 5 points at any point in the cycle, given the stability in voters’ choices this year.”
Currently, FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Harris leading Trump by 2.5 percentage points (48.3% to 45.8%). By comparison, in 2020, President Joe Biden was ahead by 7.1 points at this stage before ultimately defeating Trump by a 4.4-point margin in the election.
RealClearPolitics also reflects a tight race, with Harris slightly ahead at 49.2 percent against Trump’s 47.1 percent. Their Electoral College estimates show the race nearly locked, with Harris at 215 votes and Trump at 219, leaving 104 electoral votes categorized as toss-ups across various states.