House Republicans in Danger: Who Might Lose Their Seats?

On November 5, voters across the United States will head to the polls for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, as Republicans aim to solidify their control, which they first seized during the 2022 midterm elections.

The Cook Political Report, a respected nonpartisan organization for election analysis, has identified 29 races where incumbent Republicans may be vulnerable. These races are categorized as “likely Republican,” “lean Republican,” and “Republican toss-up.”

Following a mixed bag of results in the 2022 midterms—where the GOP took the House but Democrats retained the Senate—Republicans hope to gain control of both chambers in next month’s elections. A recent FiveThirtyEight analysis indicates Republicans have a 52% chance of maintaining the House majority compared to 48% for Democrats.

Toss Up

David Schweikert (AZ-01)
David Schweikert is a seasoned Republican seeking his eighth term in Congress, currently chairing the House Oversight Subcommittee.

Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06)
Juan Ciscomani, originally from Mexico, narrowly won Arizona’s 6th district in 2022 with 50.7% of the vote.

John Duarte (CA-13)
John Duarte flipped California’s 13th district in the 2022 election with just 50.2% of the vote.

David Valadao (CA-22)
David Valadao has served five terms representing California’s 22nd district.

Mike Garcia (CA-27)
Mike Garcia has been a member of Congress since his election.

Ken Calvert (CA-41)
Ken Calvert secured his position in California’s 41st district in 2022.

Michelle Steel (CA-45)
Michelle Steel was born in South Korea and raised in Japan.

Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01)

Zach Nunn (IA-03)

Don Bacon (NE-02)
Don Bacon has served Nebraska’s 2nd district since 2017.

Anthony D’Esposito (NY-04)
Anthony D’Esposito was previously a councilman before winning his seat in 2022.

Mike Lawler (NY-17)

Marc Molinaro (NY-19)
Marc Molinaro was the Dutchess County Executive.

Lori Chavez-DeRemer (OR-05)

Unlikely

John James (MI-10)
John James was elected to the House in 2022.

Ryan Zinke (MT-01)
Ryan Zinke was elected to Congress in 2022.

Thomas Kean Jr. (NJ-07)
<Thomas Kean Jr. has represented New Jersey’s 7th district since January 2023.

Scott Perry (PA-10)
Scott Perry has been in the House since 2013.

Jen Kiggans (VA-02)

Derrick Van Orden (WI-03)
Derrick Van Orden entered the House in 2023.

Very Unlikely

Kevin Kiley (CA-03)
<Kevin Kiley previously served in the California State Assembly before winning a seat in the House.

Young Kim (CA-40)
<Young Kim has held her position since 2021.

Lauren Boebert (CO-03)
Lauren Boebert is running for Colorado’s 4th district this time around.

Anna Paulina Luna (FL-13)
<Anna Paulina Luna won her seat in Florida’s 13th district last November.

Maria Elvira Salazar (FL-27)
Maria Elvira Salazar has been in the House since 2021.

Nick LaLota (NY-01)
Nick LaLota was elected to represent New York’s 1st district in 2022.

Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-01)
Brian Fitzpatrick has served as a representative since 2017.

Monica De La Cruz (TX-15)

Bryan Steil (WI-01)
Bryan Steil has been serving Wisconsin’s 1st district since 2019.