Hey everyone! There’s a buzz in the air as forecasters are anticipating that warm ocean temperatures could give rise to up to three named tropical storms in the Atlantic this November, with some activity possibly lingering into December.
According to Alex DaSilva, the lead hurricane expert at AccuWeather, “We’ve been forecasting potential late-season action since March.” He highlighted that November might see a sudden uptick in tropical storms forming over the Atlantic basin.
Right now, the spotlight is on the southern Caribbean, where forecasters are looking at a high chance of tropical development starting as soon as Friday.
As we look ahead, areas like Florida and the East Coast might take the brunt of any storms heading to the U.S., while the western Gulf Coast is likely out of the woods this time around.
DaSilva pointed out, “Florida all the way up to the Carolinas is at risk of experiencing tropical impacts again this season, especially after several earlier landfalls.” In contrast, the coastal areas of the western and central Gulf of Mexico are expected to remain largely unaffected for the rest of the hurricane season.
If the storms materialize, they would be named Patty, Rafael, and Sara. The current uptick in storm activity can be attributed to unusually high ocean temperatures.
Brett Anderson, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, explained, “Sea surface temperatures and the ocean’s heat content, which gauges heat from the surface down to about 2,000 meters, are extremely elevated in the Caribbean right now.” He added that this trend might point to longer hurricane seasons with earlier starts and later finishes becoming the norm.
Landfalls of hurricanes in November are quite rare, but not unheard of. The last one, Hurricane Nicole, hit Florida’s east coast as a Category 1 in 2022.
This year’s conditions, however, suggest a greater risk for late-season storm development, prompting officials to remain vigilant through the traditional hurricane season, which wraps up on November 30, and possibly beyond.
Caribbean nations, in particular, should stay alert in the coming days. DaSilva noted, “We’re seeing early signs of trouble, with showers and thunderstorms popping up in the southern Caribbean. A high-pressure system moving north is creating a favorable environment for storm development.”
So far this year, tropical storms and hurricanes have created nearly $500 billion in damages and economic losses in the U.S., not to mention the severe human impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton.