As we gear up for the 2024 election, millions of Americans have already made their voices heard through early voting. This year is shaping up to be one of the closest races in history, and while early voting results provide a glimpse of candidate standings, they don’t reveal the complete picture.
Nearly every state has embraced early voting, leading up to Election Day. Recently, polling stations opened in Florida and Texas, with pivotal states like Georgia and Nevada also getting started last week.
Early indications show Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump among those who’ve voted early. However, early voting trends typically favor Democrats, as Trump has frequently raised concerns without evidence, claiming that mail-in votes could lead to fraud.
This election cycle, the GOP has reversed its stance, now urging supporters to vote in any way they choose, despite Trump calling early voting “stupid stuff.” At a rally in Pennsylvania, he emphasized the importance of voting early, albeit with his characteristic skepticism towards the process.
Where’s Early Voting Happening?
With 47 states and the District of Columbia providing early voting options, the timeline can differ significantly. Some states, like Minnesota and Virginia, kicked off their early voting in September, while places like Oklahoma and Kentucky opened just days before Election Day.
In swing states Georgia and North Carolina, early voting has seen record turnout. Georgia reported over 310,000 votes on the first day, totaling over 1 million by the week’s end. North Carolina saw more than 353,000 ballots cast on its first day of early voting.
In contrast, states like Alabama and New Hampshire limit early voting unless voters have a valid excuse, such as military deployment, while early voting protocols can vary within states like North Dakota and Pennsylvania.
Who’s Leading in the Polls?
Recent polls suggest Harris has a strong lead among early voters, boasting 63% to Trump’s 34% in one recent survey. However, Trump enjoys a double-digit lead among those intending to vote on Election Day, with a 52% to 35% advantage.
According to NBC News, as of Monday, approximately 14.5 million ballots have been cast early, with Democrats making up 46% of those votes compared to 29% Republicans. In battleground states, there’s a fairly even split: Republicans lead in Georgia and Arizona, while Democrats dominate in Pennsylvania and Minnesota.
Overall, analysts consider this contest a toss-up, with Harris currently ahead by 1.8 points in national averages. However, projections by FiveThirtyEight still favor Trump in Electoral College outcomes.
Elections Day 2024: What to Know
Election Day is set for November 5, falling on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. While it’s not a federal holiday, several states do recognize it as such, allowing employees time off to vote.
The Aftermath If Trump Loses
Experts express concern that Trump may challenge the election results should he face defeat. He continues to allege—without proof—that the previous election was rigged and has echoed unfounded claims about voting machines in Georgia.
While he no longer holds presidential authority, Trump has the option to contest through legal avenues, echoing his previous attempts post-2020, all of which were dismissed by courts.
Furthermore, Trump has made statements hinting at severe repercussions for perceived election wrongdoing, indicating a potential for increased tensions post-election.
2024 vs. 2020: A Comparison
The 2020 election, largely influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, saw unprecedented early voting, with Democrats leading the numbers significantly. By mid-October 2020, early voters had reached over 22 million—a stark contrast to previous elections.
By the time Election Day arrived in 2020, approximately 93 million ballots had been cast, marking a historic turnout like no other. Current early voting statistics suggest a continued engagement in the electoral process as we head into another historic election season.
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