This week marked the start of early in-person voting for the presidential election in Florida, and the numbers show a clear preference for Donald Trump over Kamala Harris.
Early voting began on Monday, October 21, as Floridians prepare for the election set for November. According to data from the Florida Secretary of State, over 202,000 voters have cast their ballots for the Republican candidate, while just over 108,000 opted for the Democrat.
Additionally, the deadline to request a mail-in ballot is approaching fast, set for Thursday, October 24. As of now, more than 1.3 million mail-in ballots have already been returned in Florida: 555,000 for Harris and 477,000 for Trump.
| Stats Type | Republican | Democrat | Other | No Party Affiliation | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vote-by-Mail | 477,778 | 555,450 | 26,375 | 247,038 | 1,306,641 |
| Early Voting | 202,036 | 108,832 | 7,794 | 58,373 | 377,035 |
With two weeks left until Election Day, Trump currently leads Harris by 679,814 votes to her 664,282. Although this will likely fluctuate as more ballots are cast—especially with over 10 million people voting in 2020—the trends and polling indicate Trump is likely to secure a win in Florida once again.
Historically, mail-in voting tends to favor Democratic candidates, while Republican supporters usually vote in-person on Election Day. This dynamic may allow Trump to further bolster his lead on November 5.
Democratic leaders have expressed hope for Harris to make gains in Florida, with some polls indicating a tighter race than expected. DNC Chairman Jaime Harrison mentioned that they believe the party has a fighting chance in the state, and election night may bring surprises.
Florida, once a crucial swing state, has leaned more Republican in recent years, particularly after Trump’s wins in 2016 and 2020, along with Governor Ron DeSantis’ re-election in 2022.
Polling supports the notion that Trump is statistically favored to win Florida in the upcoming election. A recent survey by the University of North Florida shows him leading Harris by 10 points (53% to 43%), with a margin of error of ±3.49%. Furthermore, 538 currently projects Trump with a 5.7-point average lead, and models by Decision Desk HQ/The Hill estimate an 81% chance of his victory in Florida this November.