In a surprising twist, Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris is only trailing Republican frontrunner Donald Trump by a slim margin in Alaska—an uphill battle for any Democrat in a state that has favored the GOP for decades.
It’s been 60 years since a Democratic candidate last claimed victory in Alaska; that was President Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. Since then, the Republican Party has consistently dominated, often winning by significant margins.
Interestingly, Trump’s lead in Alaska has narrowed slightly between the 2016 and 2020 elections. In 2016, he triumphed over Hillary Clinton by almost 15 points, but in 2020, that margin reduced to 10 points against President Biden. Notably, in the 2022 midterms, Alaskan voters defied Trump’s endorsements, opting for Democratic Representative Mary Peltola and anti-Trump GOP Senator Lisa Murkowski instead, aided by the state’s ranked-choice voting system.
Dominic Gwinn/Middle East Images via AFP/Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
Polling Insights in Alaska
A recent poll by Alaska Survey Research conducted shortly after the Harris-Trump debate reveals that Harris is trailing by just 5 points among likely voters, with Harris at 42% and Trump at 47%. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.—who has since endorsed Trump—holds 5%, leaving 6% undecided. Remarkably, 52% of those who watched the debate felt Harris had won.
This poll surveyed 1,254 likely voters in Alaska, though the margin of error wasn’t disclosed.
With the ranked-choice voting system, Kennedy Jr.’s supporters may have the option to elect either Harris or Trump as their second-choice candidates, redistributing votes in subsequent rounds if he doesn’t secure enough support.
Q: If the November 2024 general election for US President was held today, for whom would you vote?
Among 1,254 LV’s:
Donald Trump 47 (48)
Kamala Harris 42 (44)
Robert Kennedy Jr 5 (4)
Undecided 6 (5)— Alaska Survey Research (@The_Real_ASR) September 13, 2024
Insights from Nate Silver
Nate Silver, founder of Silver Bulletin, shared his optimistic take on Harris’s chances in Alaska. He highlighted his model’s consistent support for Democratic prospects in the state, suggesting that while Alaska only carries three electoral votes, its impact per vote is significant, ranking it as the 8th in their Voter Power Index.
Previously, Silver created the well-known FiveThirtyEight site, which is now part of ABC News.
National and Swing State Context
Nationally, Harris appears to be slightly ahead, with polling averages from Silver suggesting she holds 48.3% against Trump’s 46.2%. According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris stands at 48.1% and Trump at 45.4%.
In critical swing states, Harris has a narrow lead in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, while Trump shows strength in Georgia and Arizona. Both candidates are neck-and-neck in North Carolina and Nevada, according to the latest polling data.
Furthermore, FiveThirtyEight reports similar trends with Harris maintaining narrow leads in key states while Trump stays competitive in others.