In an interesting turn of events, Vice President Kamala Harris has been given 50/1 odds (2 percent) by a prominent bookmaker on capturing the seven crucial swing states of Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, and Nevada in the upcoming presidential election.
Following President Joe Biden’s announcement to withdraw from the race and his subsequent endorsement of Harris on July 21, she has risen as the presumed Democratic nominee. Unlike Biden, who often lagged behind his Republican opponents, Harris has shown stronger performance against Trump in multiple polls and is viewed as a frontrunner for the November election according to several bookmakers.
In the 2016 election, all seven swing states listed by William Hill favored Trump except Nevada, which was won by Hillary Clinton. However, Biden managed to flip Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan in 2020, securing the necessary Electoral College votes for his victory.
As of now, William Hill has set various odds for Harris: 4/6 (60 percent) for Georgia, 4/5 (55.6 percent) for Arizona, and 8/13 (61.9 percent) for Wisconsin. For Pennsylvania, she has similar odds of 4/6 (60 percent), while the odds for her winning Michigan sit at 1/2 (66.7 percent), North Carolina at 4/9 (69.2 percent), and Nevada at 8/11 (57.9 percent).
Recent polling data from FiveThirtyEight indicates Harris leading Trump by 2.6 points, with 46.3 percent to Trump’s 43.7 percent. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is trailing with 5.1 percent.
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It’s essential to note that leading in the popular vote doesn’t guarantee a win in the Electoral College. This was evident in 2016 when Trump secured the presidency despite losing the popular vote by almost three million ballots.
This week, Trump has revamped his campaign team, bringing back Corey Lewandowski, who was previously dismissed amidst allegations of misconduct. Joining the team are Alex Pfeiffer, Alex Bruesewitz, and Taylor Budowich, previously with the MAGA Inc. super PAC, along with communications director Tim Murtaugh from Trump’s 2020 re-election campaign.
A recent Outward Intelligence poll from August 11 to 15 shows Harris leading Trump by 13 points among female voters, whereas Trump holds a narrow one-point advantage among male voters.