Kamala Harris’s prospects for the 2024 presidential election have taken a hit recently. According to the The Economist, she’s now seen as “neck and neck” with Donald Trump as Election Day approaches.
The latest forecast suggests Harris could secure between 196 and 367 Electoral College votes, with a median of 270. In comparison, Trump is projected to get between 171 and 342 votes, with a slightly lower median of 268. This marks a notable improvement for Trump compared to earlier forecasts, which had him at 264 and 257 votes in previous weeks.
The Economist utilizes over 10,000 election simulations to determine outcomes, indicating the odds of an Electoral College tie are slim—under one in 100.
Harris faced a significant polling setback this past Wednesday, with a Quinnipiac University survey revealing Trump leading by three points in both Michigan and Wisconsin—states that went to Biden in 2020. However, she maintains a three-point lead in Pennsylvania, according to the same poll which surveyed over 3,000 likely voters across these key states.
Additionally, FiveThirtyEight’s recent election analysis suggested a decrease in Harris’s chances, now at 53%, down from 64% two weeks ago.
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Meanwhile, leading bookmakers have revised their odds in Trump’s favor as well, with Sky Bet, William Hill, and 888.sport now offering 4/5 odds for a Republican win, a change from 10/11 earlier this month.
On Thursday, former President Barack Obama made his first campaign appearance for Harris, rallying support from Black voters in Pennsylvania. He addressed the crowd, urging them to mobilize and not shy away from electing a woman as president.
Obama stated, “We need a president who actually cares about solving problems,” emphasizing Harris’s commitment to improving people’s lives.
On the same day, Trump spoke at the Detroit Economic Club, claiming that if Harris becomes president, “Our whole country will end up being like Detroit.” He illustrated his point by suggesting that the city is struggling, likening it to areas in China.