Nate Silver’s latest forecast suggests that Vice President Kamala Harris may have gained significant traction in the 2024 presidential race. Following her debate against former President Donald Trump, Harris’ probability of winning crucial Electoral College votes has risen, according to Silver’s model.
For several weeks, Harris has led in various polls, and recent analyses indicate she has come out on top in post-debate surveys against Trump.
In a recent update on his Silver Bulletin blog, Silver stated: “Harris is moving up in the polls enough that the model is converging back toward 50/50 in the Electoral College,” highlighting the clear bounce she’s received from national polls.
Currently, Silver’s averages show Harris leading Trump by approximately 2.9 percentage points nationally.
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Silver also mentioned that some newer polls indicate Harris may be leading by a greater margin than his model suggests.
As a result of this positive trend in polling, Harris’ chances of winning the Electoral College have increased from 38.4 percent on debate day to 43.5 percent.
Trump’s chances, meanwhile, have declined, dropping from 61.3 percent before the debate to 56.2 percent now. The polling site FiveThirtyEight, which was founded by Silver, puts Trump’s odds even lower at 39 percent, with Harris at 61 percent following the debate.
Despite Harris’ gains, Silver’s model still shows Trump has a better chance of winning key swing states like Arizona and Georgia. Harris remains competitive in states like Michigan and Wisconsin, which are still classified as toss-ups.
Although Trump claimed his support increased post-debate, some Republican strategists find such assertions questionable. One GOP strategist remarked that all credible polls indicate a movement toward Harris since the debate, and they are cautious about self-reported campaign numbers following a challenging day.
Overall, although both candidates face a competitive landscape, recent data suggests Harris might be gaining an advantage in the race.