As we close in on the 2024 election, Vice President Kamala Harris is currently leading in national polls against Donald Trump. However, history shows that polling leads don’t always lead to victory in the Electoral College.
With the election season heating up, both Harris and Trump are expected to ramp up their campaigns over the next few weeks. Typically, the period after Labor Day is crucial as voters become more engaged and significant news stories emerge.
This election cycle has been unique, with a pivotal event occurring before Labor Day—President Biden halting his reelection campaign following a challenging debate against Trump in June. He then endorsed Harris, which has led to a surge of support for her candidacy, a stark contrast to Biden’s earlier campaign.
Despite this momentum, Harris is still polling lower than Biden did against Trump in 2020 and Hillary Clinton in 2016. According to polling averages from 538, she currently leads Trump by 3.3 points with 47.1% to his 43.8%.
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For context, in 2020, Biden led Trump by 7.5 points at this time, while Clinton’s lead in 2016 was 3.7 points. Despite trailing in 2016 polling averages, Trump won the election in a stunning upset, defeating Clinton by 304 Electoral College votes, although she won the popular vote by nearly 3 million.
Trump’s victory was largely due to razor-thin margins in crucial swing states like Michigan, where he won by just over 10,000 votes, and Pennsylvania, by 44,000 votes, drawing heavily from rural voters. Clinton was criticized for not campaigning sufficiently in these areas, particularly Wisconsin, which she ignored completely.
Clinton pointed to external factors, such as the October Surprise involving James Comey’s reopening of the email investigation, as detrimental to her campaign in her book, What Happened.
In contrast, in 2020, Biden capitalized on Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, which was widely seen as poor. However, Trump did receive credit for the rapid vaccine rollout through “Operation Warp Speed.”
Ultimately, Biden secured a comfortable victory, winning the Electoral College 306 to 232 and the popular vote by about 7 million, with narrow victories in swing states like Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin.
Harris faces the challenge of maintaining or expanding her polling lead in the weeks leading up to November. Several key events, including an upcoming debate with Trump on September 10 and Trump’s scheduled sentencing for a felony conviction on September 18, could influence voter sentiment.
Recent polling from Bloomberg News/Morning Consult indicates that Harris holds a slim 2-point lead among registered voters in key swing states, and this lead narrows to a statistical tie among likely voters.
In North Carolina, Harris has made significant gains, now leading by 2 points in a state that hasn’t voted Democratic since 2008. She’s also ahead in crucial swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Winning these states could secure her the necessary Electoral College votes.
The survey also shows Harris leading in Georgia and Nevada, while the race is tied in Arizona. Overall, the polling reflects a positive shift in voter sentiment toward Harris since her entry into the race, indicating growing enthusiasm around her campaign.
As the election approaches, it remains to be seen how these dynamics will play out and whether Harris can translate current polling into a definitive victory come November.