The Michigan race is heating up, with Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump neck and neck as Election Day looms just weeks away.
As a pivotal battleground state, Michigan could sway the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. Historically part of the Democratic “blue wall,” Trump is eyeing a potential flip, fueled by support from important demographics, including union workers.
Harris faces challenges in these blue states, partly due to criticism aimed at the Biden administration’s response to the Gaza conflict. Recent surveys indicate some voters dissatisfied with Harris’ stance on Israel are considering casting votes for Green Party’s Jill Stein, which could impact her standing in Michigan, home to the largest Arab American community in the U.S.
GEOFF ROBINS/AFP via Getty Images
To rally support, Harris visited Detroit for a conversation with radio host Charlamagne tha God, emphasizing her experience as a prosecutor and senator while framing Trump as a threat to democracy.
Both candidates are set to campaign in Michigan soon. Harris plans stops in Grand Rapids and Lansing before a rally in Detroit, while Trump is also rallying in the city.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris holds a slim lead over Trump, averaging just 0.7 percentage points in Michigan. A recent poll from Redfield & Wilton Strategies shows them tied at 47 percent, with Stein trailing at under 0.5 percent. Another poll from SoCal Strategies gives Harris a slight edge, 49 percent to Trump’s 48 percent.
Conversely, Trump’s campaign internal polling from October 10 showed him leading by 1 point, while a separate ActiVote poll from mid-September to early October placed Harris ahead by 2 points, at 51 percent.
Both FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics categorize Michigan as a “toss-up,” with Trump averaging a 1-point lead across statewide polls. However, pollster Nate Silver offers a slight edge to Harris, estimating a 55.6 percent chance of her winning the state compared to Trump’s 44.4 percent. Silver also notes that Michigan has the second-highest likelihood of being a decisive state, with an 18 percent chance of tipping the election next month.