The race for Michigan is heating up, with Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump neck-and-neck. Recent polls suggest a slight advantage for Democrats, but it’s still anyone’s game.
Michigan is crucial for the upcoming 2024 presidential election, much like it was four years ago when President Joe Biden secured a win over Trump by a narrow 2.8 points. Trump had previously won the state in 2016 against Hillary Clinton by merely 0.3 percent, claiming Michigan’s 16 electoral votes. Note that for the 2024 and 2028 elections, Michigan has 15 votes because of the 2020 Census adjustments.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris has an average lead of just 0.4 percent over Trump. However, RealClearPolitics shows Trump slightly ahead by 0.2 points. This makes Michigan a “toss-up” as many predictions suggest.
A recent Quinnipiac University poll indicates some good news for Harris; it shows her leading with 49 percent against Trump’s 46 percent among likely voters. The margin of error is 2.9 percent, similar to their lead. Another poll from Morning Consult and Bloomberg also confirms this close race with the same percentages, including responses from third-party candidates like Chase Oliver and Jill Stein who together garnered 3 percent of support.
Photo by Sarah Rice/Getty Images
While Harris shows a narrow lead among likely voters, her margin decreases to 47 percent to 45 percent in a broader group of 756 registered voters. Analysts warn that Stein’s candidacy could siphon votes from Democrats in Michigan, especially within its significant Arab American community who may be dissatisfied with the current administration’s policies on Israel.
Polls remain tight, with one from Redfield & Wilton Strategies indicating a tie at 47 percent for both candidates among 1,115 likely voters. Another from Trafalgar Group, often leaning conservative, shows Trump slightly ahead by 2 points.
This weekend, both candidates are hitting the campaign trail in Michigan. Early voting kicks off on Saturday, although some local areas have already started polling. Trump will be in Traverse City and Novi, while Harris is set to appear in Kalamazoo with former First Lady Michelle Obama and later hold a rally in Ann Arbor featuring singer-songwriter Maggie Rogers.