The forecasters at Colorado State University have confirmed their predictions for the 2024 hurricane season. The Tropical Weather and Climate Research Team recently released a report on the probability of landfall and extended forecasts based on data up to the present.
They are still expecting an above-average hurricane season with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). The report also highlights the areas in the United States that are at the highest risk of a major hurricane landfall.
According to CSU, there is a 34% chance of a Category 3 or higher hurricane hitting the U.S. East Coast this year. This is higher than the historical average of 21% from 1880 to 2050. On the Gulf Coast, there is a 42% chance of a major storm, compared to the average of 27% from 1880 to 2020.
For Florida, the probability of a major storm hitting varies by location. The Atlantic Coast south and east around Cedar Key have a 34% chance of being struck by a major hurricane, while the likelihood increases west or north of Cedar Key, including the Gulf Coast.
In a previous forecast, CSU predicted a 96% chance of Florida being impacted by a named hurricane this year, with Monroe County expected to be the most affected area.
In their latest report, CSU mentioned a 62% chance of a major storm hitting any U.S. coast, higher than the historical average of 43% from 1880 to 2020.
It’s crucial to remember that just one landfalling hurricane can make a season highly active. Preparedness is key regardless of the number of hurricanes predicted each season.
Similarly, NOAA also expects an active hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin, with a prediction of 17-26 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes, and 4-7 major hurricanes.
Typically, hurricane season runs from June to November. On average, NOAA projects 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes during a normal season.