Polling guru Nate Silver recently highlighted a pivotal shift in the presidential race, indicating that former President Donald Trump has overtaken Vice President Kamala Harris in a new poll.
In a Sunday entry on his blog, Silver Bulletin, Silver examined a recent New York Times/Siena College survey that shows Trump leading Harris nationally by 48% to 47%. He pointed out, “One of the best pollsters in the country has bad news for Kamala Harris,” suggesting that momentum has shifted in Trump’s favor.
Despite the shift, Harris still holds a slight edge in Silver’s polling aggregate, leading Trump 48.7% to 46.2%, a drop from the previous week’s 49.2% to 45.7%. This change comes after a notable uptick in support for Harris following President Joe Biden’s decision to exit the 2024 presidential race on July 21, during which he endorsed her as his successor.
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Despite the recent changes, the race remains tightly contested, with most polls indicating Harris and Trump are either virtually tied or within the margin of error. Silver emphasized the importance of the current poll, given its reliable source and robust sample size, cautioning against selective poll analysis, especially in light of criticisms from Democratic supporters.
On a related note, FiveThirtyEight, Silver’s former polling aggregator, currently shows Harris with a narrower lead of 47.1% compared to Trump’s 44.3%, indicating a slight gain for Trump over the past week.
Looking ahead, Silver noted that the dynamics could still shift, particularly in light of Harris’s upcoming debate with Trump in Pittsburgh. “Debates are often judged relative to expectations,” he explained, implying that a tighter race could lead to a more favorable view of Harris’s performance.
Silver also raised concerns regarding Harris’s past progressive stances on issues like immigration and healthcare, which are likely to be focal points for Trump’s campaign. According to the Times’ poll, 44% of voters believe Harris is too progressive, while only 32% view Trump as too conservative.
It’s important to note that while Silver acknowledges Harris as the current favorite, the gap has closed. His election model still indicates she has a slight advantage in key swing states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan, although he warned that continued trends like those shown in the Times poll could make the race increasingly competitive.