As the election day approaches, voter registration has closed in Pennsylvania, a crucial state in the upcoming race. With just 14 days left until November 5, over 9 million residents are registered to vote according to state data. This number is slightly below the 9.09 million registered in the 2020 elections.
Although registration ended on Monday, voters can still request mail-in ballots until October 29. So far, over 1.8 million mail-in ballots have been requested in Pennsylvania, as reported by local station WGAL.
The race is tight, with Donald Trump recently taking a slight lead over Kamala Harris, following President Biden’s exit from the race in July. As of early Monday, Trump led Harris by 0.3 points, garnering 47.9% support to Harris’s 47.6%. Polling aggregate by FiveThirtyEight predicts a Trump victory in the state.
Notably, Nate Silver’s tracker shows both candidates tied at 48 percent each, while RealClearPolitics indicates Trump ahead by 0.8 points after recently surpassing Harris.
Recent polls, including an AtlasIntel survey, show Trump leading by 3 points, while other polls conducted by the Trafalgar Group and Quantus Insights reaffirm similar results with minor leads within the margin of error.
Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes are vital, as the state has backed the overall winner in 48 out of the last 59 elections. Harris requires 44 electoral votes from toss-up states to win, while Trump needs 51; however, losing Pennsylvania would significantly hinder Harris’s chances.
Current forecasts suggest Harris may win in states like Michigan and Nevada, totaling 31 electoral votes, while Trump is expected to secure Pennsylvania, Arizona, and others for a total of 62. RealClearPolitics anticipates Trump winning all battleground states, giving him a projected 312 electoral votes compared to Harris’s 226.
Despite these predictions, the race remains competitive, as Nate Silver describes it as “extremely close.” Nationwide, Harris currently leads Trump slightly by 1.8 points according to FiveThirtyEight, while Silver’s tracker gives her a 1.6-point advantage. However, Trump’s odds of winning stand at 52.7%, compared to 47% for Harris.