Poll Director Warns Against Overinterpretation of Swing State Findings

Vice President Kamala Harris is currently leading in Wisconsin, as indicated by the latest Marquette University Law School poll. However, the director of the poll urges caution regarding the interpretation of these results.

Released on Wednesday, the poll shows Harris ahead of former President Donald Trump by 4 points, with 52 percent to Trump’s 48 percent in a hypothetical matchup. Conducted from September 18 to 26, it includes responses from 882 registered voters.

This result mirrors a previous poll from September 11, where Harris also led 52 to 48. Nonetheless, poll director Charles Franklin reminded the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that “results could change” before the November 5 Election Day, noting past polling inaccuracies in 2020 and 2016.

“Just a reminder, we were off by four points in 2020 and over six points in 2016,” Franklin stated in a report Wednesday. “So, fair warning, these results could change.”

Poll Director Urges Caution His Own Survey
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Pollsters have refined their methods since the previous elections, during which Trump consistently underperformed in surveys. In the final days leading up to the 2020 election, he trailed Joe Biden by an average of 8.4 percentage points, yet lost by only 4.4 points overall.

In 2016, Trump was behind Hillary Clinton by 3.9 points on Election Day but won the election despite losing the popular vote by 2.1 points.

Marquette’s last poll before the 2020 election indicated Biden leading Trump by 5 points, yet the actual result was a narrow victory for Biden by about 20,000 votes. Currently, Harris leads Trump by an average of 1.8 percentage points in Wisconsin, according to FiveThirtyEight, but experts suggest this may be less about gaining momentum and more about improved polling techniques.

As for registered voters, Franklin explained that clerks will not purge voter rolls of those who have moved or registered elsewhere for several months post-election. The number of registrants typically drops during winter but is expected to climb again by November; however, the exact numbers remain unknown.

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