The 2024 presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is heating up as we approach the final week.
Current polls suggest Trump holds a narrow advantage over Harris, but the outcome remains uncertain.
Trump’s national poll numbers have edged up slightly since last week. However, most key aggregators still show Harris in the lead. The competition in seven pivotal swing states remains razor-close, with candidates either neck-and-neck or only slightly ahead in various surveys.
Noted pollster Nate Silver recently highlighted in The New York Times that considering the race a 50-50 split is the most responsible prediction. He has a hunch that Trump may secure more Electoral College votes, but he urges that predictions should be taken with caution.
“Don’t trust anyone’s gut feeling—including mine,” Silver cautioned.
For Harris to clinch victory, securing the traditionally Democratic states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin will be crucial. Trump’s path to hitting the 270 Electoral College threshold largely relies on taking Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina.
National Averages
According to 538, Harris currently leads Trump by a slim margin of 1.4 points (48.1% to 46.6%). This is a slight dip from her previous 1.7-point lead recorded two weeks ago.
Despite the close numbers, the polling aggregator gives Trump a 54% chance of winning, underscoring the race’s toss-up nature. Poll analyst G. Elliott Morris from 538 mentioned, “Just because polls are close doesn’t mean the final result will be.”
Another recent model indicates Harris maintains a polling edge of 1.1 points (48.6% to 47.5%). Trump has seen a half-point improvement since last week.
Additionally, RealClearPolitics reports that for the first time, Trump has overtaken Harris in its national average by 0.5 points, now showing 48.1% to 47.6%.
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill shows Harris edging Trump by 0.7 points, down from a one-point lead last week.
Swing States
538 reveals that Trump and Harris are nearly tied in several key states. Both candidates stand at 47.8% in Wisconsin, while Trump has slight leads in Pennsylvania (0.3 points) and Nevada (0.2 points). Harris holds a 0.5-point advantage in Michigan.
Trump enjoys stronger leads in North Carolina (1.3 points), Georgia (1.6 points), and Arizona (1.9 points). Meanwhile, Silver Bulletin identifies Harris leading in Michigan (0.5 points) and Wisconsin (0.4 points) but losing to Trump in Pennsylvania (0.5 points) and other states.
RealClearPolitics indicates that Trump is ahead in all seven swing states.
Recent Polling
A recent TIPP Tracking poll featuring 1,288 likely voters found Trump and Harris neck-and-neck at 48%. This survey was conducted from October 25-27, with a margin of error of 2.7 points.
A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted October 23-25 showed Harris leading Trump by a point nationally (50% to 49%), with a margin of error of 2.6 points.
Lastly, an Emerson College poll of 1,000 likely voters also found Trump and Harris tied at 49%, which has a margin of error of 3 points.