Polling experts are raising eyebrows over a recent Pennsylvania election survey that seems to significantly underrepresent likely voters from Philadelphia.
An American Greatness/TIPP survey of 1,079 registered voters from this crucial battleground state shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 4 points (49% to 45%) in a direct matchup. However, when focusing on a smaller sample of likely voters (803 respondents), Trump pulls ahead with a 49% to 48% lead.
The stakes are high for both candidates, as securing Pennsylvania could be key to winning the overall 2024 election, with many polls indicating a neck-and-neck race.
For Harris, winning Pennsylvania, along with Michigan and Wisconsin, is essential to her chances in November. On the other hand, Trump might secure the necessary 270 Electoral College votes by flipping Pennsylvania alongside wins in North Carolina and Georgia.
Despite Trump’s narrow lead in the survey among likely voters, critics point out a glaring issue: the poll notably underrepresented respondents from Philadelphia, the state’s largest city.
The poll’s data shows only 12 out of the 807 likely voters were from Philadelphia, which is just about 1.5%, despite the city housing over 1.5 million residents. This lack of representation is troubling because Philadelphia tends to lean heavily Democratic.
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Experts have criticized this apparent oversight. Lakshya Jain, cofounder of Split Ticket, called it “dishonest” to exclude Philadelphia respondents and labeled this poll as one of the most problematic he’s encountered.
Former pollster Adam Carlson expressed skepticism about the substantial difference between the registered and likely voter numbers, suggesting that the methodology may have been flawed. Garrett Herrin of polling aggregator VoteHub stated that the TIPP survey will not be included in their averages due to suspected errors.
In the 2020 election, Biden won Philadelphia handily, capturing around 81% of the vote against Trump. Daniel Nichanian, editor-in-chief of Bolts, spoke with TIPP and reported that they maintained there were no errors in their methodology, despite the low likelihood of voting among surveyed Philadelphia residents.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, Harris holds a slim lead over Trump in Pennsylvania at 48% to 47.4%. Meanwhile, Decision Desk HQ/The Hill gives Harris a 52% chance of winning this critical state.