Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Suspends Presidential Campaign but Remains on Ballots
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. may still hold sway in critical battleground states, even after announcing the suspension of his presidential campaign. At a recent press conference, he expressed doubts about his electoral viability, stating, “In my heart, I no longer believe that I have a realistic path to electoral victory.” He went on to endorse Donald Trump, emphasizing that, despite differing views, Trump unites people around Kennedy family values.
Kennedy Jr. encouraged voters in pivotal states to support Trump, stating, “In about 10 battleground states where my presence would be a spoiler, I’m going to remove my name.” However, several states have turned down his requests to withdraw, leaving him on the ballot in key locations like North Carolina, Michigan, and Wisconsin. He has successfully removed his name from the ballot in Arizona.
State Ballot Complications
Kennedy Jr. will remain on the ballot in up to 23 states, including Alaska, California, and Minnesota. Michigan’s Secretary of State noted that “minor party candidates cannot withdraw,” and North Carolina officials deemed it impractical to remove his name due to state law requirements for absentee ballots.
The Potential Impact on the Race
Pollster Chris Lane mentioned that Kennedy Jr.’s exit could shift the race by as much as 16 points, given that swing voters previously indicated they would vote for him. The close nature of the battleground states means this could be a decisive factor in deciding the presidency.
While direct matchups show little change in polling, some analyses indicate Kennedy Jr.’s support may be more significant in states like Michigan and New Mexico. A recent Redfield & Wilton poll had him at 5% in Michigan and 8% in New Mexico, whereas he was polling at 3.6% nationally at the time of his exit.
Trump vs. Harris: What’s at Stake?
Political science professor David Cohen warns that Kennedy Jr.’s lingering presence could potentially draw more votes away from Trump than from Kamala Harris, although he considers the overall impact to be limited. Mike Tappin from Keele University echoes this, predicting that Kennedy Jr.’s exit will have a “minimal impact” as the election date approaches.
In fact, Tappin suggests that Kennedy Jr.’s withdrawal might even funnel more support towards Harris, particularly as polling indicated that previous supporters of Kennedy Jr. leaned towards Harris over Trump after Joe Biden dropped out in July.