Senator Jon Tester, a Democrat from Montana, currently enjoys a 5-point lead over his Republican opponent, Tim Sheehy, ahead of the pivotal 2024 Senate elections, according to a recent poll.
A survey from Napolitan News Service, which queried 540 registered voters in Montana, found Tester leading with 49% compared to Sheehy’s 44%. This race has been labeled as the “most important Senate race” of the upcoming elections.
The November showdown in Montana could significantly influence which party controls the Senate, particularly after Trump won the state by 16 points in 2020.
Currently, the Democrats hold a slight edge in the Senate with a 51-49 seat margin, which includes four independents who side with them.
The expectation is that the GOP may secure the West Virginia seat held by retiring independent Senator Joe Manchin, potentially giving them 50 seats. Thus, the results of the presidential race—pitting Trump against Vice President Kamala Harris—alongside the Montana Senate election could be crucial for the future of the next Congress.
If Tester wins reelection in Montana but Trump claims the presidency, the Senate could end up evenly split at 50-50, with Vice President JD Vance serving as the tiebreaker. Conversely, if Harris prevails in the presidential contest, Democratic Vice President Tim Walz would hold the tiebreaking vote, again creating a 50-50 split. This means Republicans would need to reclaim both West Virginia and Montana for total control.
“Among the competitive races, many are trending Democrat,” remarked a spokesperson from Napolitan News Service. “Montana presents the Republicans’ best chance and is a significant concern for Democrats.”
Despite Tester leading, the election is expected to remain contested. The polling indicates that if Montanans understood their vote could sway Senate control, 55% would opt for the Republican candidate, with only 37% backing the Democrat. Notably, 17% of Tester’s supporters indicated they would prefer Republican control of the Senate.
The poll also predicts that Trump is very likely to win Montana again, showing a lead over Harris of 53% to 35%. It’s worth mentioning that 16% of Trump voters indicated they would support Tester in the Senate race.
The Napolitan News Service conducted this poll from August 6 to August 14, and the results come with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.